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Pamangaluku ning yatu

Ing Pamangaluku ning yatu (Global warming king Ingles) ya pin ing pamagtas ning karaniwan temperatura ning angin ampong dayatmalat king Yatu manibat anyang tawling dake ning ka19 a dilanwa o siglu (late 19th century) ampo ing palage dang pamitaglus na niti king paintungulan. Manibat anyang mumuna nang dake ning ka20ng dilanwa, ing mitatas 0.8 °C, ing mean a temperatura king babo o balat ning yatu, at milyari ing metung a katlu ning pamagtas manibat kanitang 1980.[1] Alang duda o kapikakunwan a malino ing pamangaluku o pangapali ning sistema ning klima, at maygit lang 90% a siguradu deng siyentipikung ing manimunang magdala kaniti ya pin ing daragul a konsentrasyun da reng greenhouse gas a ibat kareng aktibidad ning tau, alimbawa ing pamanyilab kareng fossil a panangab (fossil fuels) ampo ing pamanyira kareng kakewan o kagubatan.[2][3][4][5] Kikilalanan da la reng pamanigaral a reti deng pambangsang akademya ning syensya da reng anggang manimunang bangsang industrialisadu.[6][A]

refer to caption
Pangyatung mean a pamagbayu king temperatura manibat 1880–2020, kumpara king 1880–1900 mean. Ing matuling a gulis ya pin ing banwahan a The black line is the annual mean at ing malutu ya pin ing taglus-taglus a mean balang limang banwa (5-year running mean). Papakit da reng aluntyan a bar deng tantsa ning e pangasiguradu (uncertainty estimates). Pikwanan: NASA GISS.
Map of temperature changes across the world
Mayayakit king mapa ing apulung banwang average (2011–2020) a global mean a temperatura kaugne king 1951–1980 mean. Pekamaragul ing pamagtas temperatura king Arctic ampo king Antarctic Peninsula. Pikwanan: NASA Earth Observatory
Fossil a panangab (fossil fuel) a miugne king lulwal a CO2 kumpara kareng limang "SRES" (pamaglarawan ning pamaglwal). Makaugne la reng pamagbaba kareng recession a pangyatu. Pikwanan king larawan: Skeptical Science.

Misampulung (summarized) la reng pamagtantsa king ulma ning klima (climate model) king 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) ning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Agpang kaniti, lalu pang mitas ing temperatura king babo ning yatung Link title1.1 to 2.9 °C (2 to 5.2 °F) para king pekamababang emissions scenario ampong Link title2.4 to 6.4 °C (4.3 to 11.5 °F) para king karelang pekamatas.[7] Ibat pamiyaliwa da reng tantsang deti king pamangamit kareng pamiyaliwa king pamangamit kareng ulma o modelung miayaliwa panga-sensitibu king sukad da reng greenhouse gas.[8][9]

Agpang king AR4, maging aliwa-liwa ing pamagtas temperatura o pamangaluku ampo reng aliwang pamagbayu king kareng balang labwad king mabilug a yatu.[10] Kayabe la kareng epektu king pamagtas ning temperatura deng pamagtas ning pamipatag o lebel ning dayatmalat, ampo ing pamagbayu ning sukad ampong pamirake ning uran at aliwang uri ning presipitasyu, at mapalyaring ing pamaglapad da reng subtropical a desyertu.[11]

Notes

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  1. ^ The 2001 joint statement was signed by the national academies of science of Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, the Caribbean, the People's Republic of China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Malaysia, New Zealand, Sweden, and the UK.[12] The 2005 statement added Japan, Russia, and the U.S. The 2007 statement added Mexico and South Africa. The Network of African Science Academies, and the Polish Academy of Sciences have issued separate statements. Professional scientific societies include American Astronomical Society, American Chemical Society, American Geophysical Union, American Institute of Physics, American Meteorological Society, American Physical Society, American Quaternary Association, Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences, Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, European Academy of Sciences and Arts, European Geosciences Union, European Science Foundation, Geological Society of America, Geological Society of Australia, Geological Society of London-Stratigraphy Commission, InterAcademy Council, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, International Union for Quaternary Research, National Association of Geoscience Teachers, National Research Council (US), Royal Meteorological Society, and World Meteorological Organization.
  2. ^ Earth has already experienced almost 1/2 of the 2.0Expression error: Unrecognized word "f".Expression error: Unrecognized word "f". Expression error: Unrecognized word "f". (
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      - Invalid output type     {4}="1", in {{Convert|Template:Uncomma||F-change|1|...}}. ) described in the Cancun Agreement. In the last 100 years, Earth's average surface temperature increased by about 0.8Expression error: Unrecognized word "f".Expression error: Unrecognized word "f". Expression error: Unrecognized word "f". (
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      - Invalid output type     {4}="1", in {{Convert|Template:Uncomma||F-change|1|...}}. ) with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades.[1]
  3. ^ Note that the greenhouse effect produces an average worldwide temperature increase of about Template:Convert/0/AonSoff (
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      - Invalid output type     {4}="", in {{Convert|Template:Uncomma|0|0||...}}. ) compared to black body predictions without the greenhouse effect, not an average surface temperature of Template:Convert/0/AonSoff (
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      - Invalid output type     {4}="", in {{Convert|Template:Uncomma|0|0||...}}. ). The average worldwide surface temperature is about Template:Convert/0/AonSoff (
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      - Invalid output type     {4}="", in {{Convert|Template:Uncomma|0|0||...}}. ).
    4. [13]
  4. ^ In the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, published in 2007, this attribution is given a probability of greater than 90%, based on expert judgement.[14] According to the US National Research Council Report – Understanding and Responding to Climate Change – published in 2008, "[most] scientists agree that the warming in recent decades has been caused primarily by human activities that have increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere."[15]

Citations

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  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 (2011) America's Climate Choices. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. ISBN 978-0-309-14585-5. “The average temperature of the Earth’s surface increased by about 1.4 °F (0.8 °C) over the past 100 years, with about 1 °F (0.6 °C) of this warming occurring over just the past three decades” 
  2. ↑ "Malino at alang duda ing pamangaluku o pangapali ning sistema ning klima, at iti makalto king pamagumasid king pamagtas ning average a temperatura ning angin ampong oseanu o dayatmalat, ing maleparan a pangalaso ning nyebe ampong yelu, ampo ing pamagtas ning lebel ning dayatmalat." ("Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level.") IPCC, Synthesis Report Archived Nobyembri 2, 2018 at the Wayback Machine, Section 1.1: Observations of climate change Archived Agostu 4, 2018 at the Wayback Machine, in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007.
  3. ↑ "Three different approaches are used to describe uncertainties each with a distinct form of language. * * * Where uncertainty in specific outcomes is assessed using expert judgment and statistical analysis of a body of evidence (e.g. observations or model results), then the following likelihood ranges are used to express the assessed probability of occurrence: virtually certain >99%; extremely likely >95%; very likely >90%; likely >66%;......" IPCC, Synthesis Report Archived Nobyembri 2, 2018 at the Wayback Machine, Treatment of Uncertainty Archived Marsu 9, 2013 at the Wayback Machine, in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007.
  4. ↑ IPCC, Synthesis Report Archived Nobyembri 2, 2018 at the Wayback Machine, Section 2.4: Attribution of climate change Archived Nobyembri 3, 2018 at the Wayback Machine, in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007.
  5. ↑ America's Climate Choices: Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change; National Research Council (2010). Advancing the Science of Climate Change. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. ISBN 0-309-14588-0. “(p1) ... there is a strong, credible body of evidence, based on multiple lines of research, documenting that climate is changing and that these changes are in large part caused by human activities. While much remains to be learned, the core phenomenon, scientific questions, and hypotheses have been examined thoroughly and have stood firm in the face of serious scientific debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations. * * * (p21-22) Some scientific conclusions or theories have been so thoroughly examined and tested, and supported by so many independent observations and results, that their likelihood of subsequently being found to be wrong is vanishingly small. Such conclusions and theories are then regarded as settled facts. This is the case for the conclusions that the Earth system is warming and that much of this warming is very likely due to human activities.” 
  6. ↑ Joint Science Academies' Statement (PDF). Archived from the original on 9 September 2013. Retrieved on 9 August 2010.
  7. ↑ Meehl et al., Chap. 10: Global Climate Projections Archived Abril 15, 2016 at the Wayback Machine, Sec. 10.ES: Mean Temperature Archived Nobyembri 16, 2011 at the Wayback Machine, in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007.
  8. ↑ Schneider Von Deimling, Thomas (2006). "Climate sensitivity estimated from ensemble simulations of glacial climate". Climate Dynamics. Template:Citeseerx. 
  9. ↑ Meehl et al., Chap. 10: Global Climate Projections Archived Abril 15, 2016 at the Wayback Machine, Section 10.5: Quantifying the Range of Climate Change, in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007.
  10. ↑ Solomon et al., Technical Summary, Section TS.5.3: Regional-Scale Projections, in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007.
  11. ↑ Lu, Jian; Vechhi, Gabriel A.; Reichler, Thomas (2007). "Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming" (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters 34 (6): L06805. doi:10.1029/2006GL028443. Archived from the original. You must specify the date the archive was made using the |archivedate= parameter. http://www.atmos.berkeley.edu/~jchiang/Class/Spr07/Geog257/Week10/Lu_Hadley06.pdf. 
  12. ↑ Kirby, Alex (17 May 2001). "Science academies back Kyoto", BBC News. Retrieved on 27 July 2011. 
  13. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named IPCC_WG1_AR4_Ch1
  14. ↑ IPCC, Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers Archived Marsu 9, 2013 at the Wayback Machine, Introduction Archived Marsu 9, 2013 at the Wayback Machine, in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007.
  15. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named nrc2008

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